2025-26新赛季于8月16日凌晨揭幕，对于彩民来说，最关注的应该是：各支球队都有了哪些变化？哪支球队更有投注价值？红彩邀请西班牙专家Borja给大家带来前瞻，Borja是西甲发文600场以上的专家中盈利率最高！
冠军争夺者：
巴塞罗那、和马德里竞技是仅有的三支真正梦想捧起奖杯的球队，但如果你问我谁领先一步……我预测是巴塞罗那。
为什么？很简单。因为在西甲，强队面临的最大挑战是如何击溃那些防守松懈的球队，尤其是在客场。而巴萨拥有强大的进攻火力，他们是一支进攻型球队，比赛节奏非常开放，有很多机会可以给对手造成威胁。我认为他们不会在这种比赛中陷入困境，不过在欧洲，他们需要在防守上更加稳固，情况就不同了。
他们保留了上赛季的核心阵容（拉米内·亚马尔、拉菲尼亚、佩德里……），并增加了拉什福德进行锋线轮换，还有上赛季最佳门将胡安·加西亚。凭借这样的比赛风格和阵容，他们是我最喜欢的球队。
另一方面，皇马正处于转型期。诚然，他们斥巨资签下了卡雷拉斯、赫伊森、阿诺德、马斯坦图诺诺……，但他们仍未弥补最大的损失：找到一个真正能接替托尼·克罗斯的中场。如果没有一个能够掌控并串联攻防的中场，很多比赛都可能陷入僵局，尤其是在姆巴佩或维尼修斯缺乏斗志的情况下。去年，他们赢得比赛更多依靠的是个人能力而非团队协作，这种情况可能再次发生。此外，他们的阵容深度不够，锋线替补球员寥寥无几，而且新教练（哈维·阿隆索）也需要时间来落实他的理念。即便如此，凭借他们所拥有的天赋，他们仍然是积分榜前两名的有力争夺者。
此外，还有马德里竞技。他们斥资超过1.5亿欧元签下了：阿莱克斯·巴埃纳（上赛季西甲最佳球员之一）、蒂亚戈·阿尔马达、卡多佐……这些球员要么对比赛了如指掌，要么能立即带来高水平的发挥。“马竞”正在努力保持核心阵容的凝聚力，他们知道进入前三名是最低要求，但凭借这个阵容，他们也有能力争夺冠军。
马竞最大的挑战在于提升客场表现。在大都会球场，他们凭借惯性碾压对手，但在客场，他们难以展现自己的实力，难以进行高强度的逼抢，也难以展现出足够的勇气。如果他们真的迈出了这一步，那就要小心了，因为他们的实力可能非常可怕。如果做不到，他们仍然会落后巴萨和皇马一筹。
至于关键球员：
● 巴萨 → 拉米内·亚马尔，一位毋庸置疑的新星；拉菲尼亚，本赛季将迎来辉煌；莱万多夫斯基，尽管是一位老将，但依然保持着关键作用。
● 皇马 → 姆巴佩和维尼修斯，西甲最佳进攻组合，尽管他们并非总能联袂出击。
● 马竞 → 胡利安·阿尔瓦雷斯和巴埃纳担任射手，索尔洛特担任终结者。
总结：巴萨和皇马大概有70-75%的机会，我把剩下的机会给了马竞……其他球队则只能看看了。
第四名即席位争夺者：
如果撇开巴萨、皇马和马竞不谈，那么最后一张门票将主要由毕尔巴鄂竞技和比利亚雷亚尔争夺。尽管两支球队的踢法截然不同，但他们是两支最有机会晋级的球队。
毕尔巴鄂竞技——圣马梅斯的堡垒
上赛季，毕尔巴鄂竞技赢得了西甲“第四大”球队的称号。在圣马梅斯，他们如同一道坚固的城墙：高强度的对抗、高压逼抢、稳固的防守，以及欧洲少有的充满斗志的氛围。在那里击败他们几乎是不可能的。
在客场，他们的表现也相当不错，凭借着精妙的射门，他们赢得了几场势均力敌的比赛。对他们来说，这个夏天最棒的事情不是签约，而是留住了差点加盟巴萨的尼科·威廉姆斯。他们坚持只签下巴斯克球员的理念，因此转会市场并不繁忙：最引人注目的签约是拥有顶级联赛经验的右后卫阿雷索。
问题可能在于阵容深度。在联赛、杯赛和欧冠之间，他们需要轮换，因此你可以看到替补球员的水平比首发球员低一两档。威廉姆斯兄弟和桑塞特是关键球员，但如果他们中的任何一个受伤，球队的水平都会大幅下降。
比利亚雷亚尔——进球如麻……但后防线漏洞百出
另一方面，比利亚雷亚尔的转会窗口期相当紧张。他们失去了巴埃纳，但这已成定局，他们进行了有效的再投资，签下了拥有西甲经验和实力的球员。最大的进步在于板凳深度，这让他们有更多轮换选择，同时又不会损失实力。
他们一直以来的问题在于防守。去年，他们的后防线简直是一场灾难：丢球太多，几乎每次都需要进两三个球才能取胜。他们的进攻火力十足，但如果你想在顶级联赛中竞争，就需要学习如何在0-1的情况下取胜。
坏消息是，从赛季前的友谊赛表现来看，这支球队看起来和之前大同小异：进攻火力十足，能进球，但也丢球不少。如果他们不解决这个问题，西甲联赛所需的稳定性可能会让他们感到窒息。
谁会夺得第四名？
根据他们的阵容和轮换选择，我认为今年可能是比利亚雷亚尔的赛季。他们比毕尔巴鄂竞技更有深度，在38场比赛的赛季里，这绝对是一笔宝贵的财富。
和欧会杯席位争夺者：
在这场争夺中，一个名字格外突出：皇家贝蒂斯。佩莱格里尼的球队失去了一些关键球员（赫苏斯·罗德里格斯和安东尼，他们去年为球队赢得了不止一场比赛），但他们仍然拥有一支实力雄厚、阵容均衡的队伍。
转会市场竞争激烈，他们增加了轮换阵容的选择，并保持了鲜明的风格。当然，他们的魔力很大程度上来自伊斯科，我们都知道他的身体状况并不总是能撑过整个赛季,而且在友谊赛中受伤可能会缺席3个月。但是贝蒂斯在主场表现可靠，客场也极具竞争力（尤其是在对阵中下游球队时），并且知道如何在一周双赛的情况下完成轮换。因此，尽管他们还没有达到毕尔巴鄂竞技或比利亚雷亚尔那样的欧冠水平，但在我看来，他们无疑是欧联杯席位的热门。
西甲联赛：充满惊喜的开放赛场
在这里，情况更加开放。上赛季，我们看到像巴列卡诺和塞尔塔这样的球队悄然获得席位，但今年的情况有所不同。
● 巴列卡诺：他们几乎没有补强，阵容质量和数量都不足。去年他们的表现超出预期，而现在，由于联赛客场作战和人员流失，他们可能会面临更大的压力。如果他们更倾向于降级而不是欧战，我一点也不会感到惊讶。
● 塞尔塔：他们的情况有所不同。克劳迪奥·吉拉尔德斯拥有连续性，知道如何激励全队士气，并且信任青训球员。他们引进了费兰·于特格拉和布莱恩·萨拉戈萨（如果他状态好的话，他会成为一个真正的威胁），并且保留了伊阿戈·阿斯帕斯作为主力球员。他们的弱点仍然是防守，但他们将年轻球员和经验丰富的球员很好地融合在一起。他们在主场实力强劲，客场作战，因此我认为他们有望重现欧战辉煌，尽管我不知道是在欧联杯还是联赛。
● 奥萨苏纳：一匹有趣的黑马。他们有一位新教练，利西奇（他来自米兰德斯，在那里的乙级联赛中表现出色），以及一支与他风格非常契合的球队。如果他们能迅速适应，就能在埃尔萨达尔制造一些麻烦，拿下关键分数，而埃尔萨达尔一直是他们的堡垒。
其他球队，比如皇家社会、瓦伦西亚和塞维利亚，在我看来，他们今年似乎并没有为欧战而生的决心。尤其是塞维利亚，他们似乎更倾向于陷入困境，而不是用一个欧战项目来激励球迷。
中游和保级球队：
除了我们已经提到的那些争夺榜首位置和欧战席位的球队外，其他球队也都明白，如果开局不利或状态不佳，降级指日可待。垫底的球队实力悬殊，残酷无比：一连串的伤病，或者一个月不胜，都可能让你从安逸的生活变成勉强维持生计。
上赛季我们就见证了这一点：赫罗纳、阿拉维斯，甚至塞维利亚都曾险些降级，而赫塔菲和西班牙人等其他球队则在看似无力回天的情况下成功逃脱。
几乎总是如此，从乙级联赛升上来的球队最有可能承受降级：皇家奥维耶多、埃尔切和莱万特。
● 埃尔切：在我看来，是三支球队中最弱的一支。糟糕的转会市场，平庸的阵容，以及缺乏能够在甲级联赛中保持竞争力的比赛风格。
● 莱万特：经验更丰富，阵容稳健，防守端能够取胜，有望保持多次零封。
● 奥维耶多：球员个人实力不如莱万特，但阵容非常稳健。他们在主场会很顽强，但客场可能会遭遇重创。
其他可能陷入困境的球队
● 阿拉维斯：去年险些降级，但目前状态并无太大起色。如果他们遭遇困境，可能很难恢复。
● 马洛卡：教练团队内部存在问题，上赛季后半段的表现也令人难以忘怀。如果他们重蹈覆辙，将不得不做出重大决定。
● 巴列卡诺：几乎没有引援，而且他们还要参加西杯。阵容紧凑，客场作战……随时可能体力透支。
● 赫罗纳：他们上赛季表现糟糕，严重依赖引援。他们有城市集团的支持，维托尔·雷斯这样的引援以及勒马尔的租借加盟，可能会带来巨大的改变。他们最大的优势：进球能力，这在保级战中至关重要。
● 塞维利亚：最大的疑问。如果他们在转会市场上失去卢克巴基奥或巴尔加斯，他们的进攻平衡将大大受损。他们缺乏进球、稳定性和统治力十足的中场。高强度而紧张的比赛氛围也对他们不利，而且他们已经开始出现体能问题。要么他们迅速做出反应，要么排名垫底也就不足为奇了。
懂得如何在泥泞中生存的球队
赫塔菲和西班牙人正是为此而生。他们是一支天生就具备竞争力的球队，拥有深谙比赛之道的教练和适合他们风格的阵容。他们知道如何终结比赛，如何在没有漂亮表现的情况下拿分，以及如何争取许多宝贵的平局。
25/26赛季西甲联赛最终预测
● 🏆 冠军：巴塞罗那——阵容最完整，进攻火力十足，拥有打破僵局的武器。
● ⚽ 最佳射手：姆巴佩——火力全开，有望卫冕最佳射手。
欧战席位：
1️⃣ 巴塞罗那
2️⃣ 马德里竞技（没错，排在皇家马德里之前）
3️⃣ 皇家马德里
4️⃣ 比利亚雷亚尔——阵容深度是赛季延续的关键。
5️⃣ 毕尔巴鄂竞技——主场圣马梅斯实力强劲，但阵容较弱，难以在三条战线上竞争。
6️⃣ 皇家贝蒂斯——阵容稳健，佩莱格里尼深谙轮换之策。
7️⃣ 塞尔塔——勇猛无畏，进球如麻，在吉拉尔德斯的调教下表现出色。
降级球队：
⛔ 埃尔切——联赛中最弱的球队。
⛔ 阿拉维斯——如果连续取得糟糕成绩，降级风险很高。
⛔ 皇家奥维耶多——主场竞争力强，但客场缺乏经验且非常脆弱。
Borja英文原文：
🔥 Title race: Barça, Madrid, and Atlético, and little else
This year, it's back to three. Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Atlético Madrid are the only teams that can seriously dream of lifting the trophy, but if you ask me who's one step ahead... I'll take a guess: Barcelona.
Why? Easy. Because in La Liga, the big obstacle for the big teams is breaking down teams that sit back, especially away from home. And that's where Barça has plenty of firepower. They're an attacking team that plays very open games and has many options to hurt their opponents. I don't think they'll get bogged down in those kinds of games, although in Europe, where they'll be required to be more solid defensively, it'll be a different story.
They've kept the core of last season's team (Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Pedri...) and added Rashford to rotate up front, plus Joan García, last season's best goalkeeper. With that style of play and that squad, they're my number one favorite.
Real Madrid, on the other hand, are in the midst of a transition. Yes, they've spent money on signings (Carreras, Huijsen, Arnold, Mastantuono...), but they still haven't covered their biggest loss: a real replacement for Toni Kroos. Without a midfield that commands and connects defense and attack, many games could get bogged down, especially if Mbappé or Vinicius aren't inspired. Last year, they won more because of individual flashes than because of collective play, and that could happen again. In addition, they have a short squad, few replacements up front, and a new coach (Xabi Alonso) who will need time to implement his ideas. That said, with the talent they have, they remain clear favorites for the top two.
And then there is Atlético Madrid, who have no excuses this year. They have spent more than €150 million on signings: Alex Baena (one of the best players in La Liga last season), Thiago Almada, Cardoso... All players who know the competition w
ell or who bring immediate quality. El Cholo is keeping the core of the team together and knows that a top-three finish is the minimum, but with this squad, they have to fight for the title.
Atleti's big challenge will be to improve away from home. At the Metropolitano, they are a steamroller by sheer inertia, but away from home they struggle to impose themselves, press high and be brave. If they manage to take that step, watch out, because they can be scary. If not, they will remain a step below Barça and Madrid.
As for key players:
● Barça → Lamine Yamal as a confirmed rising star, Raphinha to confirm his great season, and Lewandowski, who, although a veteran, remains decisive.
● Madrid → Mbappé and Vinicius, the best attacking duo in La Liga, although they don't always shine together.
● Atleti → Julián Álvarez and Baena as goal scorers, plus Sorloth to finish things off.
In summary: Barça and Madrid have 70-75% of the chances between them, I give the rest to Atleti... and the rest of the teams are just watching.
🎯 The battle for fourth place in the Champions League
If we take Barça, Madrid, and Atleti out of the equation, the last ticket to the Champions League will be fought over mainly by Athletic Club and Villarreal. They are the two teams with the best chances, although they play very differently.
Athletic Club – Fortress of San Mamés
Last season, Athletic earned the right to be considered the “fourth big” team in La Liga. At San Mamés, they were a wall: maximum intensity, high pressure, solid defense, and an atmosphere that pushes like few others in Europe. Beating them there was almost impossible.
Away from home, they didn't do too badly either, winning tight games thanks to their finishing. And the best thing about the summer for them has not been any signings, but retaining Nico Williams, who was on the verge of joining Barça. They are sticking to their philosophy of only signing Basque players, so the transfer market has not been very busy: the most notable signing is Areso, a right-back with experience in the top flight.
The problem may come with the depth of the squad. Between the league, cup and Champions League, they will need to rotate, and that is where you can see that the substitutes are a step or two below the starters. The Williams brothers and Sancet are key, but if any of them get injured, the level drops considerably.
Villarreal – Goals galore... and holes at the back
Villarreal, on the other hand, has had a fairly busy transfer window. They lost Baena, but it was a foregone conclusion and they have reinvested well, signing players with La Liga experience and immediate quality. The big improvement is in the depth of the bench, which gives them more options to rotate without losing quality.
Their historical problem is defense. Last year, they were a disaster at the back: they conceded too many goals and almost always needed to score two or three goals to win. They are dynamite in attack, but if you want to compete at the top, you need to learn how to win 0-1.
The bad news is that, from what we've seen in preseason, it looks like more of the same: an offensive team, very lively, capable of scoring goals but also conceding a lot. If they don't fix that, the consistency required in La Liga could choke them.
Who will take fourth place?
Based on their squad and rotation options, I would say that this could be Villarreal's year. They have more depth than Athletic, and in a 38-game season, that's gold. Even so, it will be a very close fight, because Valverde's side are a safe bet at home.
🌍 Europa League and Conference League: who dreams of traveling across the continent
In this fight, one name stands out above the rest: Real Betis. Pellegrini's team has lost some important players (Jesús Rodríguez and Antony, who won more than one game for them last year), but they still have a solid and well-balanced squad.
The transfer market has been interesting, they have added options for rotation and maintain a recognizable style. Of course, much of their magic comes from Isco, and we all know that his physical condition does not always hold up for the entire season. Even so, Betis is reliable at home, competitive away (especially against mid-table and lower-table teams) and knows how to manage rotations in weeks with three competitions. Therefore, without reaching the level of Athletic or Villarreal to fight for the Champions League, for me they are the clear favorites for the Europa League.
Conference League: open field with surprises
Here, things are much more open. Last season, we saw teams like Rayo Vallecano and Celta sneak into Europe, but this year the context is different.
● Rayo Vallecano: they have barely strengthened and their squad is short on quality and quantity. Last year they performed above expectations, and now, with the travel and wear and tear of the Conference League, they could suffer a lot. I wouldn't be surprised to see them looking more towards relegation than towards Europe.
● Celta: their situation is different. Claudio Giráldez has continuity, knows how to keep the whole squad motivated and trusts the youth academy. They have added Ferran Jutglà and Bryan Zaragoza (who, if he is on form, can be a real threat) and have kept Iago Aspas as their star player. Their weak point remains their defense, but they combine youth and experience well. They are strong at home and brave away, so I see them as candidates to repeat their European presence, although I don't know if it will be in the Europa League or the Conference League.
● Osasuna: an interesting dark horse. They have a new coach, Lisci (who comes from Mirandés, where he had a great season in the Second Division), and a team that fits in quite well with his style of play. If they adapt quickly, they could cause some trouble and pick up key points at El Sadar, which has always been a fortress.
Other names such as Real Sociedad, Valencia, and Sevilla don't give me the impression that they are built to fight hard for Europe this year. Sevilla in particular, who seem closer to getting into trouble than to exciting fans with a continental project.
⚠️ Mid-table and relegation: everyone is looking down
Apart from the teams we have already mentioned in the fight for the top and for Europe, the rest know that if they get off to a bad start or get into a bad run, relegation is just around the corner. The equality at the bottom is brutal: a string of injuries or a month without a win and you can go from being comfortable to having your head above water.
We saw it last season: Girona, Alavés and even Sevilla flirted with the drop, while others, such as Getafe and Espanyol, managed to escape when all seemed lost.
The newly promoted teams: the ones who suffer the most
As is almost always the case, the teams coming up from the second division are the ones most likely to suffer: Real Oviedo, Elche, and Levante.
● Elche: in my opinion, the weakest of the three. A poor transfer market, a squad of average quality, and no style that can give them a competitive edge in the first division.
● Levante: more experience in the category and a solid team, capable of winning games from defense, a candidate to keep many clean sheets.
● Oviedo: not as strong individually as Levante, but a very solid team. They will be tough at home, but could suffer a lot away.
Other candidates for trouble
● Alavés: narrowly avoided relegation last year and has not improved much. If they hit a rough patch, it could be very difficult to recover.
● Mallorca: internal problems with the coach and a second half of last season to forget. If they repeat that performance, drastic decisions will have to be made
● Rayo Vallecano: with hardly any reinforcements and the Conference League ahead of them. A short squad, long trips... the danger of total exhaustion.
● Girona: they finished last season badly and depend heavily on the signings they make. They have the backing of the City Group, and signings such as Vitor Reis and the loan of Lemar could make all the difference. Their big advantage: they score goals, something that is worth its weight in gold in the fight for survival.
● Sevilla: the big question mark. If they lose Lukebakio or Vargas in the transfer market, they lose much of their attacking balance. They lack goals, solidity, and a dominant midfield. The demanding and tense atmosphere doesn't help either, and they are already starting with physical problems. Either they react quickly, or it wouldn't be surprising to see them at the bottom.
Those who know how to live in the mud
This is where Getafe and Espanyol come in. They are teams built to compete, with coaches who know the game and squads suited to their style. They know how to close out games, pick up points without playing beautifully, and scrape together many valuable draws. Barring a catastrophe, they shouldn't be too involved in the drama.
My relegation predictions 📝
● Elche → worst squad and no clear plan to compete.
● Alavés → high risk of a string of bad results
● Real Oviedo → solid at home, but lacking experience and weak away.
Possible negative surprises: Rayo Vallecano, Sevilla, Girona, and Mallorca.
📊 Final predictions for La Liga 25/26
● 🏆 Champion: Barcelona – most complete squad, attacking play and weapons to open up difficult games.
● ⚽ Top scorer: Mbappé – pure firepower, favorite to repeat as top scorer.
European places
1️⃣ Barcelona
2️⃣ Atlético de Madrid (yes, above Real Madrid)
3️⃣ Real Madrid
4️⃣ Villarreal – squad depth key to lasting the season.
5️⃣ Athletic Club – strong at home at San Mamés, but short squad to compete on three fronts.
6️⃣ Real Betis – solid unit, Pellegrini knows how to manage rotations.
7️⃣ Celta – brave, with goals and well managed by Giráldez.
Relegation
⛔ Elche – the weakest squad in the division.
⛔ Alavés – high risk of sinking if they string together poor results.
⛔ Real Oviedo – competitive at home, but inexperienced and very fragile away.
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